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The biggest drop of BTC in the last bull market was 84%, and this round may fall to $11,000?

I saw the weekly chart of TNB today. The left weekly line has been rising step by step, from 0.000525 to a high of 0.0071, an increase of 13.5 times;

This market is full of uncertainty. It is a good target when it goes up, and it does not disappoint every week, but when it is time to get out of the market, it is also unequivocal, almost straight to zero.

Of course, no target will rise forever. When buying, the risk is clear; the higher the return of any project, the greater the risk.

TNB weekly trend

If the all-time high of $69K in Bitcoin on November 8 last year is the beginning of the bear market, the bear market has been going for nearly 11 months.

According to past experience, with a 4-year cycle, the current downturn will take another 2 years.

In the last bull market, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $19,798 on December 11, 2017, and then continued to decline, falling to $3,156 in December 2018, a drop of more than 84%.

From 2019 to 2020, it fluctuated at a low level and recovered slowly; 2021 ushered in a bull market, rising to $64k in April, and the market was carnival; after falling and fluctuating for half a year, it rose to 69k in November, ushering in a double bull market.

After entering 2022, it fell all the way and fell to the lowest point of 17622 in June, a drop of more than 74%. If the decline reaches 84% ​​of the previous round, this round is expected to fall to $11,000?

2017 Bull Market BTC Weekly Volatility

Bitcoin struggled to stay above $20k during this time, dropping as low as $19,237 today. No one knows if this is the lowest point, or if there is any lower point.

The transaction volume on the chain has dropped sharply, the gas fee has dropped, and various new projects have been launched in a relatively low-key manner. The most obvious feeling is that the various communities are quiet, and no one is giving out red envelopes.

The old leeks said that more and more people quietly left the market, and most of them couldn’t stand it, and then they would usher in a bull market.

2022 Bitcoin weekly trend

Of course, history cannot be looked back, and trends cannot be predicted; past trends are not necessarily suitable for the future.

Some people say that this cycle may be a short-term bear market, and there will continue to be a small bull market opportunity; some people are pessimistic about the market, after all, the general environment is not favorable; more people are thinking about how to seize the current opportunity.

No one knows where the bottom is. All dips are staged bottoms. After the dips are successful, they can be sold at a high point. This is a circular operation.

I don’t know where the bottom is, and very few people can accurately step on the bottom price point, and very few people are successful in bargain hunting.

The current price of BTC is $19,400

Some people make a fixed investment, choose a certain target, and invest a fixed amount every month or week.

It is possible to buy lower or higher, but the bear market continues to fluctuate and it is difficult to accurately predict next week’s trend. Grasping the current relative lows is a huge opportunity in the long run.

There are some friends around, who invest every week. Set the investment amount according to your own strength, select the appropriate target, and plan it in a long period of time, such as more than 2 periods.
Friends choose the target of fixed investment, and the large proportion is relatively stable BTC. Although the increase may not be as large as other small coins, the uncertainty will be smaller.

Fixed cast smile curve

If you are worried about being affected by emotions when you manually add positions during the fixed investment process, you can also choose the fixed investment function of the platform, and the fixed time and amount will be automatically invested and executed according to the plan.

Of course, if you choose a bad bid, there is also a risk of returning to zero. If BTC goes to zero, the entire crypto market will basically go to zero, and the entire blockchain exploration will end in failure.

The market continues to develop. Since it is impossible to judge the ups and downs of the next week, it is better to do a good job in the part that can be grasped at the moment, do a good job in the circle of influence, and plant the seeds of hope for the future.

The above is just my personal opinion, no investment advice. I’m ChuxiaoLian, and I’m following the metaverse and web3.

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