DAILY CONQUEST #108

Issue #108

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Good Morning Fam,

After months of falling prices and a month-long side trend, apathy has hit the Bitcoin and Ethereum charts. As a result, both assets are showcasing record-lows in volatility.

Expert researcher Jim Bianco of Bianco Research LLC covered the current state of low volatility with a variety of charts in this tweet. What he had to say was quite interesting.

Since 2014, Bitcoin volatility has only dipped this low (23.1) 8 other times. Considering the amount of open interest in BTC futures and leverage at the moment, this stat is truly astonishing. The last time BTC vol fell this low was the 2020 pandemic crash.

Source: Twitter, Bianco

On the other hand, Ethereum’s volatility hit 5-year record lows of 28.4. Also truly astonishing considering Ethereum just experienced one of the most monumental updates in crypto’s history (The Merge).

Source: Twitter, Bianco

Interestingly, Ether’s volatility is LESS than the S&P 500, the latter being a $30.12 trillion asset. General expectations say larger assets tend to move less than their miniscule counterparts, but that is not the case here. At least for now.

Bianco noted that this might be a sign that the relationship between TradFi and crypto could be breaking. Regarding the idea, he said “If so, this is long-run bullish for crypto.”

Source: Twitter, Bianco

History has shown these low-vol environments don’t tend to last. A volatile price move is sure to follow although nobody can predict when or in which direction. We’ve got our fingers crossed it’s towards the upside!

If you’d like to dig deeper into the volatility hole, we covered a similar topic in Wednesday’s Good Morning Crypto newsletter, showing Glassnode’s study of the low-volatility environment.

BTC/USDT 1D

BTC climbed to a high of $19,347 during the early morning only to be sold off during the US market session to a low of $18,929. Price remains in a low volatility state atop the long-lasting $19k support level as price approaches a downtrend resistance (red) on the 4-hour chart. BTC completed the daily candle up +0.38% to $19,111.

High-resolution chart

TLT/USD

No, this isn’t a shady altcoin chart, despite its appearance, but rather the 20-year bond ETF. Bonds are historically considered one of the safest bets on the market, but today 20Y bonds are selling at the lowest levels since 2011, fueled by the massive unwind by the Federal Reserve.

Coinbase slashes fiat to USDC fee swaps. The largest US-based crypto exchange will begin waiving commission fees for USDC sales made in any fiat currency. The move is to accelerate the adoption of USDC internationally through a frictionless on-ramp.

Voyager customer refund. According to CoinDesk, court documents in the Voyager legislation show customers of embattled crypto exchange Voyager could recover 72% of their investments if the FTX bid goes through. The Judge looks to approve the deal by December, although it can still be scrapped if a better offer materializes.

News Tidbits:

• INTERPOL has entered the Metaverse.
• Liz Truss resigns as U.K. Prime Minister.
• 21.5m AXS tokens will be unlocked on October 25th.
• Tether to make USDT available at 24,000 ATMs in Brazil.
• Hodlonaut wins Norwegian lawsuit against self-proclaimed “Satoshi” Craig Wright.
• Mango Markets to begin refunding users from the $114m exploit.
• PancakeSwap proposal to launch on Aptos.
• Coinbase to offer Grayscale guidance in spot ETF case?

NFT & metaverse update 🐵

• Warner Bros. teams up with web3 startup Eluvio to launch ‘Lord of the Rings’ NFTs.
• Blur NFT Marketplace goes live after 4 months of private beta phase.

Let’s end the week with a laugh.

Wow., Bitboy had quite the meltdown on his show because of comments from Sean Ryan Adams and Sam Bankmen-Fried made in the tweet regarding the DCCPA bill topic we covered yesterday.