Today we are going to talk about oil, its Northern European blend #BRENT. As usual, we look at the monthly chart to see the long-term outlook. After the peak in March last year, following the Russian attack on Ukraine, oil has been falling all this time, although the decline does not look like a landslide — buyers are constantly trying to bring the cost of a barrel back up, but demand is falling and all these attempts end in failure. So the first week of June shows a rise in prices, but what will happen in a week or two? We will try to find the answer to this question on the daily chart.

On the daily chart, we can see that since the end of November last year, the price of oil has been trading in a range with a low of around $78 and a high of around $87. This continued until March, when the price failed to break out of the lower boundary and fell to $70.04. This seems to have been the trigger for the production cut announced by Saudi Arabia over the weekend of 1–2 April. The cut was planned at 1 million barrels per day. On Monday 3 April, when trading started, there was a gap of around $5? but then, as the authors of the cut had expected, everything went wrong. For a few more days, buyers tried to push the price up, reaching the level of 87.46, but after 10 days — on the 13th of April — the price began to fall, and on the 4th of May it fell to the level of 71.49. The price spent May in a tighter range — the upper limit dropped to 78, while the lower limit remains in place. At the end of last week, OPEC countries tried to repeat the trick, but only managed a gain of less than $1.5 and the price immediately began to fall. If this method of sales promotion is used again, I would not be surprised if the next gap is down instead of up. Apparently demand for oil is really falling and the reduction in supply is not scaring anyone. Prices are now slowly falling towards the lower end of the range with the prospect of further falls. It is difficult, if not impossible, to say where the price will eventually fall, but it seems that the oil age is indeed coming to an end.

To conclude this review, let’s take a look at the hourly chart. We can see that in recent days the price decline has begun in the American session, whether it will continue today is unknown, but it is clear that the growth has slowed, if not stopped. Yesterday’s sharp decline was halted as no one is interested in a rapid fall due to the deterioration in the average entry price, so we can still expect a slight rise just above the collapse point at $76.31, and only then will the decline begin again.