Déjà-vu on the monthly chart

Today we will be looking at the #AUDUSD pair. Looking at the monthly chart, there are almost no differences from the monthly chart of the #GBPUSD pair that I reviewed yesterday. A rise to the maximum, then a decline and a move into a wide range in 2014 for the pair today and a year later for the cable. Two rallies and sharp declines in 2020 and 2022. Obviously, all the similarities in the long-term movements depend on the state of the American currency, and the differences in the nature of the movements directly on the Australian and British currencies. But the current movement is different — the Australian dollar is down for the third month, but the pound is still trying to go up. I don’t know if such generalisations can be made, but in the 25 years of the foreseeable timetable, the Australian has often started to move earlier, maybe this time?

Switching to the daily chart, we are no longer looking for a real or imaginary similarity in the movement, but rather trying to understand the prospects for the current decline. We can see that the reversal attempt began in October last year (as in other pairs with the dollar), but after reaching a peak in early February, the pair did not make any new strong attempts to rise, but began to fall. It’s too early to talk about a failure of the buyers until the pair has fallen below the low of the 9th of October last year at around 0.61693, but the sellers may try to approach this level. And now, based on the results of this attempt, it will be possible to judge the long-term consequences — either the price will go lower and the pair will move to the 0.55 area or even lower, or the attempt will fail and a reversal will still take place. Now that the pair has approached the lower border of the range it has been in since late February, we will see if the price will fall or if it will make another, albeit small, move higher, which we will try to understand by studying the hourly chart.

Here, the influence of some large buyers is not yet noticeable and perhaps the pair will easily fall below the lower limit of the range, but there the presence or absence of stop orders will determine the further movement vector. Given that the pair has been range bound for over two months, and that the swing lows have been gradually rising, stop loss volume is likely to be significant as some buyers have used the dip to enter in the hope of further growth. It is also possible that the number of sell stop orders will not be significant, as the overall picture on the daily chart is more indicative of a possible start to an uptrend. In any case, a short-term return to the trading range is possible in order to throw off the ‘fellow travellers’ of the sellers and at the same time take their money. We have a Fed rate meeting next week and it’s possible that the sharp fluctuations could be triggered by that.