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With the crash of FTX crypto markets have taken another fall. Some are saying this will be the death of crypto. This has been said for 15 years. Through these 15 years, Bitcoin has survived plummets only to reach new astronomical highs. Now will be the best time to buy bitcoin for another 3+ years as the price will likely rise 1,000% in continuation of past trends.
Bitcoin price has been known to follow a 3–4 year trend since its invention in 2008. The reason for this is the halving of mining rewards coupled with speculative hype preceding and following each halving.
What is Bitcoin Mining?
Bitcoin mining is the process that verifies transactions and records them in a ledger. This is the basis for cryptos’ superior security over traditional banking. One critique is that this is bad for the environment. Proof of stake rose as an environmental alternative and was initially popularized by Ethereum which you can read about here.
How does the halving affect the price of Bitcoin?
Miners are incentivized to mine with rewards. Every four years the amount of bitcoin they are rewarded for verifying a block within the blockchain is cut in half. This results in an increasing scarcity of bitcoin. Mining and investment increase before and following each halving. As usual with price action, it can be a self-fulfilling prophecy once a trend is set.
What is very likely based on previous price action is for bitcoin to hit a new peak in the coming years.
- First Halving: 2008 started at $0 and spiked to $1,238 in December 2013.
- Second Halving: The price went down again to $315 in May 2015 only to rebound to $17,730 in January, 2018 (5628% increase).
- Third Halving: Again, the price crashed to $3,128. It then rebounded to the new peak of $68,991 (a 2205% increase). This is all perfectly timed with the halving of mining rewards, and it will likely happen again.
The residual hype spreads across the crypto market influencing new coins as well opening opportunities for an even higher ROI (or major loss).
From 2012 to 2017 saw a 5628% price increase, and from 2018 to 2022 saw a 2205% increase. The following increase will likely be smaller than the last in percentage. The pattern has been a 50% decrease in growth each subsequent halving, which would lead the next peak to a 1000% increase. A 1000% increase from the current dip would lead the next peak to nearly $200,000 in 2024.
Is it a good time to buy bitcoin?
This would be a good time to potentially receive a 1000% or higher return on your investment over the next few years. It would not be a good time to invest expecting a fast and substantial return.
The next Bitcoin halving is expected to happen between March and February 2024. The halving happens every 210,000 blocks mined.
Now is a great time to bitcoin if:
1) The US government doesn’t turn on crypto.
2) you intend to hold your investment for a few years
While this trend has followed suit for nearly 15 years, the world is full of more instability than ever, which leads me to my next point (which is actually a legal disclaimer).
- This is not financial advice. Invest at your own risk. Do more research and try to understand anything that you invest in.
Final Thoughts
What will happen in 10 years when there’s no longer room for wild price action?
Would that make Bitcoin actually adaptable as a practical currency?
Personally, I don’t think Bitcoins’ value comes from being used as a currency. I think it’s called digital gold for good reason. While there is no active team making changes as with Ethereum, it has historical significance in Crypto that I believe cements it as the top cryptocurrency. What are your thoughts?
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